Welcome to the October edition of Window Shopping, our monthly review of the UK listed company consumer sector.
A busy September brought with it a flurry of results, driving a mixing shift in upgrades (notably MP Evans, Beauty Tech and Marks Electrical) and downgrades (Warpaint London) across the consumer sector. The consumer sector underperformed the wider UK market in the month, with just the agriculture, food & beverage subsector outperforming. Earnings and margin momentum appears to be improving, with net upgrades in the month across the sector and more upgrades to profit than sales. It was another quieter month for M&A.
The month closed with the GfK’s Consumer Confidence index rising one point to its highest level for over 2 years, demonstrating a level of cautious optimism on forward expectations around the UK economy and financial position of households. The recent upgrade to GDP growth for the first six months of 2026 is positive news for the new Burnham government. With the Autumn budget looming, pledges have already been made to cut VAT on domestic energy and to support first time buyers, with no increases to the main rates of income taxes mooted. Notwithstanding the expected pressures on input costs, there is reason to believe that this cautious optimism is not misplaced.
Matt Goode – Head of Consumer Capital Markets, Cavendish
