ANGLE (AGL) : Corp

COVID-19 impact

Key data

  • Share price (p) 57.0
  • Target price (p) 135.0
  • Market cap (£m) 98.5
  • Enterprise value (£m) 83.0

ANGLE previously indicated that it expected to file a De Novo submission with the FDA for Parsortix, initially in metastatic breast cancer, and complete the enrolment of its 200-patient ovarian cancer verification study by the end of Q1 2020. Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the consequent effect government restrictions has had on blood sampling and patient recruitment, it is unable to meet these timelines. Until government restrictions in the UK and US have been relaxed, it is unclear when these milestones will be met. Cash at 30 March was £15.5m, which together with R&D tax credits, is deemed sufficient to last until at least mid-2021, or further with cost reductions and/or deferrals. The investment case remains unchanged and we retain our 135p target price.

Mark Brewer 020 7220 0556

Hardide (HDD) : Corp

COVID-19 trading update

Key data

  • Share price (p) 16.3
  • Target price (p) 88.0
  • Market cap (£m) 8.0
  • Enterprise value (£m) 5.9

The company has provided a reassuring trading update, H1 revenues are up c25% YoY with little near-term effect of the pandemic. It is mindful of the current situation on order intake in H2, particularly in the oil & gas sector, while progress with Airbus and its tier-1 suppliers continue unaffected and a supply agreement is nearing completion. The new Bicester site internal kit out phase has completed and the transition to the new site is currently on track for September. No change to forecasts, with a sound net cash position.

David Buxton 020 7220 0542

Intercede (IGP) : Corp

Receipt of $4.6m US Federal Govt. order

Key data

  • Share price (p) 41.3
  • Target price (p) 80.0
  • Market cap (£m) 20.8
  • Enterprise value (£m) 20.5

In line with expectations at interims, Intercede’s strong 4Q is typically predicated on the annual order cycle of a large client, typically in March each year. As last year (a late March $4.3m order), the group has confirmed receipt of a $4.6m order, included in management expectations for the current year, the order comprising software licences, and annual support & maintenance: $2.05m will be recognised in the current year ending 31 March. The typical seasonality sees a 40/60 1H/2H performance, which we leave unchanged for delivery of £11.0m in FY20, and look forward to a more detailed trading update in the couple of weeks following year end.

Andrew Darley 020 7220 0547

Synairgen (SNG) : Corp

First COVID-19 patient dosed

Key data

  • Share price (p) 62.0
  • Target price (p) 120.0
  • Market cap (£m) 92.6
  • Enterprise value (£m) 90.2

Synairgen confirmed that it has commenced dosing patients in its Phase II trial of SNG001 (inhaled formulation of interferon-beta-1a) in COVID-19 patients, the first patient having been enrolled at University Hospital Southampton. A further six sites have been initiated, which are expected to start dosing in the coming days. These sites, together with potentially three more, should enable the company to complete enrolment during April. Clearly this is a positive development and testament to the efforts of Synairgen, regulators and clinicians to help COVID-19 patients, with results expected during Q2 2020 that will determine the next action points. We reiterate our 120p target price with the prospect that this would rise by up to 240p on a positive outcome.

Mark Brewer 020 7220 0556

Trifast (TRI) : Corp

COVID-19 update and board changes

Key data

  • Share price (p) 96.0
  • Target price (p) U/R
  • Market cap (£m) 116.9
  • Enterprise value (£m) 132.6

The company has announced trading in the year to March 2020 has been broadly in line with expectations, but given current COVID uncertainties it withdraws guidance for March 2021, and we therefore respond accordingly by withdrawing our 2021 forecasts and price target. It also announces a number of NED changes to the Board and the formation of an Operational Executive Board.

David Buxton 020 7220 0542

M.P. Evans (MPE) : Corp

Excellent FY2019A results, upgrades for FY2020E

Key data

  • Share price (p) 465.0
  • Target price (p) 1 000.0
  • Market cap (£m) 253.2
  • Enterprise value (£m) 281.4

MPE has reported excellent results for the year ending December 2019. Total crop handled by MPE exceeded one million tons for the first time and exceeded our expectations by c9%. As a result, revenue was c10% ahead of our expectations, adjusted PBT c30% ahead. We are upgrading FY2020E adjusted PBT by c12% but this could prove conservative as we see significant potential deflation on the cost base while tension appears to be entering the CPO market. We expect MPE to maintain its dividend in FY2020E and we maintain our 1,000p price target.

Raymond Greaves 020 7220 0553

Quixant (QXT) : Corp

Cash and assets to see QXT through uncertainty ahead

Key data

  • Share price (p) 77.0
  • Target price (p) U/R
  • Market cap (£m) 51.1
  • Enterprise value (£m) 36.8

FY 2019 results will be released next week but this update reveals they are in line with forecasts. The supply-side issues of COVID-19 are easing and have been well managed with minimal disruption; however, the global shutdown for an indefinite period brings material uncertainty to FY 2020 demand across all divisions and QXT has withdrawn guidance pending greater visibility. Prudently, the dividend will also be paused this year. Nevertheless, we are confident that QXT remains well managed, with a strong business model and a healthy pipeline of prospects. Underpinned by $17.7m net cash and a property-rich balance sheet, the long-term opportunity for QXT remains robust. In fact, COVID-19 pressure may be a catalyst for increased outsourcing across the Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) industry.

Lorne Daniel 020 7220 0545

Tremor (TRMR) : Corp

Strong FY19 results highlight Tremor’s potential

Key data

  • Share price (p) 114.0
  • Target price (p) 500.0
  • Market cap (£m) 151.2
  • Enterprise value (£m) 89.2

Tremor has reported a strong set of FY19 results and announced a prudent $10m buyback. The results are in line with January’s trading update, and demonstrate strong growth in Digital Video and Connected TV (CTV) advertising. Tremor has also seen a solid start to FY20, but COVID-19 could markedly affect a number of its clients. The management and board highlight that it is too early to fully assess the impact of COVID-19 on Tremor’s FY20 outlook, and we consequently leave our FY20 estimates broadly unchanged at this point. In this report we also explain Tremor’s investment case in depth, and highlight that Tremor is excellently positioned to capitalise on the major growth in Video and CTV advertising, and can see further upside from M&A and the resolution of the Uber case.

Michael Hill 020 7220 0554

Europa Oil & Gas (EOG) : Corp

Staying the course

Key data

  • Share price (p) 0.7
  • Target price (p) 4.6
  • Market cap (£m) 3.1
  • Enterprise value (£m) 1.7

Europa has announced a cost-cutting programme to ensure it has sufficient funds for its Wressle development and ongoing farm-out activities. In light of the current depressed oil environment, we have removed Europa’s oil prospects offshore Ireland from our NAV, but kept the gas prospects. We have also cut our long-term oil price from US$60 to US$50/bbl. As a result, our risked-NAV and price target fall materially, from 12.5p to 4.6p/sh, and now only includes Europa’s onshore UK producing and development assets (1.0p/sh) alongside the Inishkea gas prospect (3.4p/sh) offshore Ireland. Even with this ‘bare-bones’ valuation, the shares still offer material upside in the event of a successful Inishkea farm-out.

Jonathan Wright 020 7220 0543

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