ANGLE (AGL) : Corp

Ovarian cancer study update – positive first step

Key data

  • Share price (p) 69.5
  • Target price (p) 130.0
  • Market cap (£m) 99.7
  • Enterprise value (£m) 84.8

ANGLE announced positive results from the first phase (pre-study) of its ovarian cancer clinical verification study. Using an optimised Parsortix HyCEAD Ziplex sample-to-answer process (developed during 2018), blood samples from 26 Stage III/IV ovarian cancer patients and 28 healthy volunteers were tested. The results give management sufficient confidence to start the 200-subject verification study in early Q3 2019, with completion anticipated in Q1 2020. A positive outcome would support ANGLE’s plans to launch a clinical assay for the detection of ovarian cancer in women with an abnormal pelvic mass at a clinical laboratory and/or via a commercial partnership. We reiterate our 130p target valuation.

Mark Brewer

Intercede (IGP) : Corp

Delivering on promises

Key data

  • Share price (p) 37.0
  • Target price (p) 80.0
  • Market cap (£m) 18.7
  • Enterprise value (£m) 20.2

With new management (CEO appointed April 2018) having put in place a programme of change designed to restore profitability within 24 months, profit has been delivered a year early. The focus on a straightforward remedy of combining growth sales with cutting of costs led to a revision of expectations straight after March year end, confirmed at prelims with EBITDA of £0.4m vs £-1.8mE. While end period outperformance highlights the risks (and reward) inherent in a licence model, the $4.3m contract win at period end emphasises the scale of opportunities, and quality of the product. $2.05m of the contract related to FY19, carrying the remainder into FY20 and de-risking growth expectations to an extent, with c£6.3m recurring & repeat revenue from maintenance and consultancy/ professional services. However, group strategy is now focused on delivering more channel partnerships to generate a more diversified flow of licences from more territories and verticals – such as the South East Asian customer win, through a new channel partner, during FY19 – with a greater volume of opportunities gaining a wider scope for conversion. With world-leading tech evidenced by the high-profile customer list and yet overlooked in current valuation terms, we reiterate our 80p target price.

Andrew Darley

K3 Capital (K3C) : Corp

Timing of growth should not detract from inherent quality

Key data

  • Share price (p) 109.5
  • Target price (p) 278.0
  • Market cap (£m) 46.2
  • Enterprise value (£m) 38.7

TP moves down to 278p using a peer group that K3 comfortably tops, while dividend recalibrated on existing 80% payout ratio using updated 2019E PAT.

Nik Lysiuk

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